Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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55–13 on winners spread MAE 9.3 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Kentucky +21.7 144.8 90% 52–86 ✓
Xavier @ Virginia Tech +4.6 131.8 60% 59–58 ✗
Arizona State @ Loyola Chicago +9.5 139.2 81% 59–77 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Virginia +8.6 149.7 83% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Iowa +28.8 162.3 91% 51–85 ✓
Penn State @ LSU +14.6 134.0 85% 63–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Virginia +17.8 124.4 88% 43–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Florida Gulf Coast +13.3 144.8 88% 67–77 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +16.9 150.8 89% 85–94 ✓
Morehead State @ Arkansas State -2.0 132.1 43% 75–51 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois +7.1 129.0 82% 59–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +9.9 138.2 79% 63–77 ✓
Iowa State @ Memphis +7.3 141.4 71% 78–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Boise State +17.2 130.7 85% 46–39 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Georgetown +1.5 140.6 56% 77–74 ✗
Towson @ New Mexico -3.0 143.0 28% 73–58 ✓
Wichita State @ Missouri -1.7 133.2 48% 61–55 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana +6.7 132.7 77% 62–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Wake Forest +7.4 142.3 75% 77–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +11.7 140.8 86% 50–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Duke -5.0 152.2 36% 81–84 ✗
USC @ San Diego State -8.0 136.4 26% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ UAB +3.4 143.6 62% 63–61 ✗
Louisville @ Maryland -2.3 140.9 45% 63–55 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ North Carolina A&T +1.7 136.5 62% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +8.0 135.0 69% 75–70 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Providence +14.5 134.4 87% 71–85 ✓
Mississippi State @ Richmond -2.6 138.6 35% 82–71 ✓
Montana State @ Incarnate Word -6.7 144.0 27% 83–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Kentucky +16.6 147.2 88% 66–81 ✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina +10.5 145.7 83% 68–70 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Elon -5.4 137.9 32% 93–81 ✓
Marist @ Army +6.4 144.0 76% 61–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State -0.3 150.4 51% 75–97 ✗
McNeese @ Samford +3.0 147.0 71% 75–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ St. Bonaventure +18.1 138.9 81% 90–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Gardner-Webb +2.7 150.8 60% 59–87 ✓
Navy @ Mount St. Mary's -8.3 125.5 18% 67–40 ✓
Delaware State @ Long Island University +6.3 148.6 76% 65–99 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +12.7 151.2 86% 79–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Hofstra +8.8 146.9 82% 84–98 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +7.6 144.4 79% 70–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ UCF +2.6 135.3 56% 65–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Davidson +18.6 144.3 88% 70–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ NC State +6.9 148.8 74% 81–90 ✓
UMBC @ Pittsburgh -0.4 136.6 40% 87–77 ✓
Rutgers @ Massachusetts +6.1 145.0 71% 83–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Cincinnati +6.3 139.6 74% 61–59 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Portland +2.9 149.8 63% 68–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Illinois +0.6 147.2 58% 67–79 ✓
Campbell @ Stetson -2.0 127.4 34% 60–58 ✓
Maine @ Bradley +14.6 126.3 87% 39–71 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon State -2.3 130.4 36% 60–45 ✓
Furman @ South Carolina Upstate -4.8 152.5 28% 87–77 ✓
Idaho State @ Air Force +8.6 126.3 82% 48–59 ✓
Charleston @ Chattanooga +14.9 145.4 79% 68–66 ✗
Georgia State @ Rhode Island +2.4 141.9 59% 59–94 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +26.7 146.0 91% 57–89 ✓
NJIT @ St. John's +17.2 148.1 89% 68–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan -9.6 137.6 20% 85–93 ✗
UCLA @ UNLV -10.6 140.8 17% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ UNC Greensboro +2.0 125.1 59% 51–54 ✓
Northeastern @ Harvard +3.3 134.5 65% 57–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross -7.5 133.9 21% 70–55 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +4.5 129.1 74% 61–73 ✓
Denver @ Utah Valley +13.0 140.3 87% 68–77 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Creighton +14.8 139.6 88% 65–70 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Pepperdine -5.5 128.5 22% 59–56 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.