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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-11.5 | 140.4 | 21% | 55–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.6 | 157.9 | 15% | 86–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 140.1 | 41% | 80–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 141.4 | 49% | 84–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 145.5 | 64% | 74–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-16.2 | 152.3 | 12% | 70–55 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 139.0 | 41% | 71–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 132.7 | 29% | 58–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 135.5 | 62% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 137.7 | 34% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 130.1 | 65% | 69–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 140.8 | 67% | 71–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 132.6 | 82% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 149.3 | 49% | 79–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.3 | 140.6 | 84% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 133.3 | 85% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.1 | 143.3 | 91% | 40–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 145.9 | 56% | 65–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.4 | 144.3 | 90% | 59–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 134.1 | 85% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 150.3 | 56% | 71–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 141.0 | 47% | 77–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.1 | 143.8 | 90% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 142.7 | 51% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 145.5 | 54% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 134.8 | 66% | 52–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 126.8 | 55% | 61–62 | ✗ |
|
|
— | — | — | 58–73 | — |
|
|
-11.0 | 136.8 | 14% | 75–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.1 | 151.6 | 17% | 78–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 148.8 | 47% | 80–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 153.1 | 77% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 136.0 | 53% | 66–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.3 | 126.2 | 86% | 49–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 145.9 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 140.2 | 57% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 148.7 | 59% | 65–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.