Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | USM +110 UCSD -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +1 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -18.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.5 (+12.5) | 140.4 (-29.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -11.4 (+12.4) | 139.7 (-28.7) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -13.0 (+14.0) | 139.6 (-28.6) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.4 (+13.4) | 140.6 (-29.6) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#337) | 7.5 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#241) | 1.97 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#241) | 2.90 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#302) | 0.564 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 41.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 82.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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