Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | MSU +230 BAY -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -0.2 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.4 (-14.6) | 137.7 (-4.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.4 (-16.6) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -0.1 (-17.1) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.1 (-15.9) | 138.7 (-5.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSU 88 – 64 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#13) | 15.5 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#26) | 2.69 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#26) | 4.75 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#14) | 0.619 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 28.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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