Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +125 BAY -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -9.5 (+33.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.0 (+30.0) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.3 (+30.3) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.5 (+29.5) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.4 (+27.4) | 142.7 (+9.3) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2021 | BAY 75 – 58 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#49) | 18.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#183) | 3.76 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#131) | 5.35 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#186) | 0.637 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 46.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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