Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | USD -260 UIC +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | USD -5.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -3.6 (+8.4) | 134.8 (-18.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.1 (+7.9) | 139.0 (-23.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -3.7 (+8.3) | 139.1 (-23.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -3.5 (+8.5) | 138.2 (-22.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#91) | -0.7 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#152) | -0.75 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#103) | -1.05 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#269) | 0.416 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 7.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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