South Alabama
Jaguars
72
–
69
FINAL
Neutral
Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic
Hawai'i
Rainbow Warriors
Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | USA -200 HAW +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USA -5.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.7 (+1.3) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.9 (+0.1) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.0 (-0.0) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.2 (+0.8) | 142.6 (-1.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#77) | 0.9 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#104) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#99) | -0.02 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#72) | 0.407 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.2% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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