Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -42.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +15 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -33.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -22.9 (-7.9) | 152.6 (-21.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -30.4 (-15.4) | 150.8 (-19.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -26.9 (-11.9) | 149.9 (-18.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-8 | 0-11 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 83.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | -22.3 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#184) | -0.67 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#173) | -0.94 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#229) | 0.456 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 35.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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