Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -11.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -12.6 (-0.4) | 157.9 (+1.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -7.9 (-5.1) | 158.0 (+1.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -7.6 (-5.4) | 158.0 (+1.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -8.1 (-4.9) | 160.8 (-1.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#173) | 11.6 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#185) | 0.77 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#211) | 1.45 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#182) | 0.507 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 27.8% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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