Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -19.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -16.2 (+1.2) | 152.3 (-27.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.5 (-2.5) | 149.7 (-24.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -13.9 (-1.1) | 150.0 (-25.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -13.8 (-1.2) | 151.5 (-26.5) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#259) | 14.7 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#271) | 3.04 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#284) | 4.25 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#298) | 0.591 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 2.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 39.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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