Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -3.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.2 (+14.8) | 135.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -2.1 (+14.9) | 136.4 (-7.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.9 (+15.1) | 135.9 (-6.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.9 (+15.1) | 136.2 (-7.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 0-19 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L21 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#154) | -2.9 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#79) | -1.08 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#59) | -1.63 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#78) | 0.366 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 9.6% |
Game Analysis
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