Betting Lines
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | NOLA -115 VMI -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -4.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -0.3 (+8.3) | 150.3 (-0.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -3.2 (+4.8) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -2.9 (+5.1) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -3.2 (+4.8) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#270) | -2.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#334) | -0.65 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#329) | -1.05 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#306) | 0.354 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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