Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -330 VCU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -15.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.0 (-4.0) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.0 (-3.0) | 131.3 (+1.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.9 (-3.9) | 131.3 (+1.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -13.1 (-6.1) | 135.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#5) | 3.7 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#64) | 1.15 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#60) | 2.82 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#133) | 0.640 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 37.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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