Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +11 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -20.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -15.3 (-4.3) | 126.2 (-17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -13.4 (-2.4) | 129.6 (-20.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -12.9 (-1.9) | 126.8 (-17.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -13.8 (-2.8) | 127.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#87) | -8.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#60) | -1.81 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#53) | -3.25 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#113) | 0.289 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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