Montana State
Bobcats
69
–
66
FINAL
Neutral
Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational
Portland
Pilots
Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | MTST -290 PORT +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.3 (+1.7) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -1.0 (+4.0) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -0.4 (+3.4) | 145.1 (-10.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -0.7 (+3.7) | 147.0 (-12.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2021 | MTST 61 – 59 PORT |
| Dec 22, 2020 | PORT 62 – 59 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#141) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#269) | 0.24 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#272) | 0.33 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#238) | 0.405 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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