Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | PORT +140 MTST -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-41.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -0.1 (+2.9) | 153.2 (-32.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -0.4 (+2.6) | 154.6 (-33.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -0.6 (+2.4) | 152.0 (-31.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -0.3 (+2.7) | 156.0 (-35.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2021 | MTST 61 – 59 PORT |
| Nov 26, 2021 | MTST 69 – 66 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-15 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 0-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-3 |
| Away | 1-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#283) | -2.8 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#200) | 0.52 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#258) | 1.09 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#179) | 0.547 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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