Purdue Fort Wayne
Mastodons
74
–
66
FINAL
Neutral
Hilton Garden Inn FGCU Invitational
SE Louisiana
Lions
Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SELA -2.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.1 (+7.9) | 136.0 (+4.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -0.0 (+8.0) | 131.5 (+8.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -0.4 (+8.4) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -0.7 (+8.7) | 133.1 (+6.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2020 | PFW 67 – 63 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#276) | -3.0 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#118) | -2.03 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#116) | -2.98 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#49) | 0.247 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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