Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -8.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -5.2 (+11.2) | 140.1 (+25.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -5.1 (+11.1) | 142.9 (+23.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -5.1 (+11.1) | 142.9 (+23.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -4.1 (+10.1) | 142.6 (+23.4) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#188) | 7.4 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#212) | 0.77 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#225) | 1.64 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#161) | 0.595 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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