Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -2.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -1.0 (+9.0) | 141.4 (+34.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -1.3 (+9.3) | 143.9 (+32.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -1.8 (+9.8) | 144.4 (+31.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -0.9 (+8.9) | 145.2 (+30.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#168) | 2.4 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#249) | -0.52 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#248) | 0.32 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#272) | 0.484 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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