Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -37.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +57 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -36.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -27.1 (+29.9) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -25.2 (+31.8) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -36.9 (+20.1) | 146.8 (-9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -37.6 (+19.4) | 142.6 (-5.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 84.4 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#7) | -13.0 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#12) | -1.58 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.09 (#8) | -2.21 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#33) | 0.336 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 12.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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