Betting Lines
| Spread | SFBK -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +12 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SFBK -4.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFBK -2.0 (-14.0) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFBK -1.9 (-13.9) | 140.0 (-10.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFBK -0.9 (-12.9) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFBK -1.9 (-13.9) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-10 |
| Home | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#260) | -9.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#332) | -1.56 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#331) | -2.56 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#254) | 0.465 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 21.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 37.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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