Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -220 SYR +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +21 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -11.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -7.8 (+13.2) | 153.1 (+3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.1 (+13.9) | 153.8 (+3.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.7 (+13.3) | 153.8 (+3.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.4 (+12.6) | 155.2 (+1.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#24) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#85) | -0.93 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#92) | -1.37 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#65) | 0.417 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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