Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -16.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -12.9 (-3.9) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -14.9 (-5.9) | 152.8 (-7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -15.6 (-6.6) | 153.6 (-8.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -15.4 (-6.4) | 153.5 (-8.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#108) | -5.3 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#74) | -1.93 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#94) | -2.49 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#56) | 0.410 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 9.5% |
Game Analysis
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