Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | BEL -160 IONA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -1.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -1.3 (+5.7) | 148.7 (-11.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -0.6 (+6.4) | 149.1 (-12.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -1.8 (+5.2) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -0.7 (+6.3) | 152.4 (-15.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#60) | 5.2 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#102) | 3.22 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#93) | 4.82 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#91) | 0.646 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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