Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.8 (+25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.1 (+20.1) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -6.9 (+20.9) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.3 (+20.3) | 136.4 (-6.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -6.1 (+20.1) | 133.8 (-3.8) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#170) | 11.6 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#173) | 1.17 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#134) | 2.10 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#208) | 0.528 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 11.0% |
Game Analysis
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