Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -125 MIA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -4.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.8 (-9.8) | 130.1 (+1.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.1 (-8.1) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -1.8 (-7.8) | 131.6 (+0.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -1.3 (-7.3) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#133) | -2.4 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#333) | -1.10 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#321) | -2.51 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#281) | 0.438 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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