Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | KU -1200 DAY +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | KU -20.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -12.3 (-13.3) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -12.3 (-13.3) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KU -14.4 (-15.4) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -13.2 (-14.2) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 19-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#12) | -4.7 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#6) | -1.65 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.36 (#7) | -2.16 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#39) | 0.367 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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