Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | DRKE +205 ALA -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -1.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -0.7 (-9.7) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -1.2 (-10.2) | 150.7 (+0.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -0.1 (-9.1) | 152.0 (-1.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.7 (-8.3) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-6 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#22) | 11.2 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#48) | 2.23 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#38) | 3.41 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.833 (#1) | 0.725 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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