Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.9 (-1.1) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.7 (-1.3) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.9 (-1.1) | 139.0 (+13.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.2 (-1.8) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | SAM 101 – 83 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | -2.0 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#312) | 1.06 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#305) | 1.08 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#327) | 0.584 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 12.3% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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