Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -4000 NCAT +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +18 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -21.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -16.9 (+1.1) | 157.7 (+26.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -15.9 (+2.1) | 155.6 (+28.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -16.3 (+1.7) | 154.1 (+29.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -16.9 (+1.1) | 154.0 (+30.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2021 | SAM 77 – 75 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-0 | 4-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#199) | -15.7 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#133) | -2.12 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#130) | -3.13 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#107) | 0.361 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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