Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–15 on winners spread MAE 9.8 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Kentucky +20.1 143.6 90% 52–86 ✓
Xavier @ Virginia Tech +5.5 134.5 74% 59–58 ✗
Arizona State @ Loyola Chicago +9.0 142.3 79% 59–77 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Virginia +7.7 143.6 77% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Iowa +24.5 154.4 91% 51–85 ✓
Penn State @ LSU +13.9 137.1 84% 63–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Virginia +12.5 130.8 86% 43–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.4 146.5 88% 67–77 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +14.0 147.9 87% 85–94 ✓
Morehead State @ Arkansas State +3.7 134.8 65% 75–51 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois +5.5 131.9 68% 59–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +7.3 141.3 75% 63–77 ✓
Iowa State @ Memphis +6.5 140.7 75% 78–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Boise State +18.7 137.9 90% 46–39 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Georgetown -0.7 139.1 45% 77–74 ✓
Towson @ New Mexico -1.7 145.9 43% 73–58 ✓
Wichita State @ Missouri +0.4 137.7 45% 61–55 ✗
Southern Miss @ Montana +6.2 136.8 72% 62–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Wake Forest +8.2 142.8 80% 77–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +8.2 141.9 76% 50–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Duke -4.8 152.5 33% 81–84 ✗
USC @ San Diego State -6.6 136.3 24% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ UAB +2.6 145.9 59% 63–61 ✗
Louisville @ Maryland -2.5 139.8 38% 63–55 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ North Carolina A&T +3.3 136.0 63% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +8.7 133.0 78% 75–70 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Providence +12.9 136.6 87% 71–85 ✓
Mississippi State @ Richmond -3.1 142.5 37% 82–71 ✓
Montana State @ Incarnate Word -4.3 145.8 33% 83–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Kentucky +12.0 145.2 86% 66–81 ✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina +11.0 144.4 83% 68–70 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Elon -3.2 136.6 35% 93–81 ✓
Marist @ Army +6.4 142.1 72% 61–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +1.1 153.3 51% 75–97 ✓
McNeese @ Samford +3.3 141.6 65% 75–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ St. Bonaventure +18.5 135.7 89% 90–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Gardner-Webb +1.3 146.9 57% 59–87 ✓
Navy @ Mount St. Mary's -4.0 133.0 30% 67–40 ✓
Delaware State @ Long Island University +1.8 139.4 49% 65–99 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +10.0 151.3 81% 79–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Hofstra +10.5 148.4 84% 84–98 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +9.4 146.4 79% 70–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ UCF +4.6 141.4 65% 65–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Davidson +16.5 145.0 88% 70–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ NC State +6.8 147.0 75% 81–90 ✓
UMBC @ Pittsburgh +0.4 137.7 49% 87–77 ✗
Rutgers @ Massachusetts +7.2 144.2 76% 83–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Cincinnati +7.8 142.3 74% 61–59 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Portland +4.8 146.7 69% 68–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Illinois +2.2 150.4 54% 67–79 ✓
Campbell @ Stetson -0.1 125.3 38% 60–58 ✓
Maine @ Bradley +11.6 127.1 85% 39–71 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon State -2.7 137.2 36% 60–45 ✓
Furman @ South Carolina Upstate +1.4 148.4 51% 87–77 ✗
Idaho State @ Air Force +11.0 129.0 85% 48–59 ✓
Charleston @ Chattanooga +15.9 151.3 88% 68–66 ✗
Georgia State @ Rhode Island +5.3 143.9 70% 59–94 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +24.0 153.3 91% 57–89 ✓
NJIT @ St. John's +16.1 148.7 87% 68–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan -7.8 138.0 20% 85–93 ✗
UCLA @ UNLV -5.8 143.7 27% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ UNC Greensboro +1.7 130.8 53% 51–54 ✓
Northeastern @ Harvard +3.7 135.2 63% 57–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross -7.0 140.0 24% 70–55 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +3.7 130.0 66% 61–73 ✓
Denver @ Utah Valley +12.9 142.7 87% 68–77 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Creighton +9.4 141.0 82% 65–70 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Pepperdine -4.0 137.7 33% 59–56 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.