Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–14 on winners spread MAE 9.8 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Kentucky +23.6 142.9 90% 52–86 ✓
Xavier @ Virginia Tech +4.5 134.0 58% 59–58 ✗
Arizona State @ Loyola Chicago +9.3 142.4 80% 59–77 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Virginia +8.1 145.0 76% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Iowa +32.7 152.2 90% 51–85 ✓
Penn State @ LSU +15.7 136.0 86% 63–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Virginia +14.5 129.7 85% 43–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.8 147.5 89% 67–77 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +15.8 147.0 88% 85–94 ✓
Morehead State @ Arkansas State +5.2 135.8 64% 75–51 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois +6.0 131.8 72% 59–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Tulsa +8.1 141.1 75% 63–77 ✓
Iowa State @ Memphis +5.8 140.0 69% 78–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Boise State +22.5 138.0 90% 46–39 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Georgetown -0.8 140.6 45% 77–74 ✓
Towson @ New Mexico -1.9 148.3 41% 73–58 ✓
Wichita State @ Missouri -0.0 137.6 52% 61–55 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana +6.4 136.5 74% 62–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Wake Forest +8.7 144.1 81% 77–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +8.4 143.2 77% 50–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Duke -4.4 150.8 37% 81–84 ✗
USC @ San Diego State -6.1 134.9 25% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ UAB +2.7 146.3 60% 63–61 ✗
Louisville @ Maryland -2.0 138.4 40% 63–55 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ North Carolina A&T +2.6 136.3 63% 67–73 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +9.4 132.4 77% 75–70 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Providence +15.4 135.5 87% 71–85 ✓
Mississippi State @ Richmond -2.1 143.2 34% 82–71 ✓
Montana State @ Incarnate Word -3.7 147.8 34% 83–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Kentucky +13.5 144.9 85% 66–81 ✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina +11.3 143.7 82% 68–70 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Elon -3.8 135.0 34% 93–81 ✓
Marist @ Army +7.0 143.0 72% 61–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Ball State +1.5 151.5 53% 75–97 ✓
McNeese @ Samford +3.5 143.2 65% 75–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ St. Bonaventure +21.5 134.4 87% 90–80 ✗
Western Carolina @ Gardner-Webb +2.2 148.4 54% 59–87 ✓
Navy @ Mount St. Mary's -4.8 132.1 26% 67–40 ✓
Delaware State @ Long Island University +2.5 140.3 35% 65–99 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State +12.3 151.2 80% 79–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Hofstra +11.7 146.9 83% 84–98 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +10.5 145.3 83% 70–83 ✓
Oklahoma @ UCF +5.1 141.0 59% 65–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Davidson +16.8 144.3 87% 70–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ NC State +6.3 149.0 75% 81–90 ✓
UMBC @ Pittsburgh +0.1 137.8 50% 87–77 ✗
Rutgers @ Massachusetts +7.5 145.2 76% 83–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Cincinnati +7.7 143.2 72% 61–59 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Portland +4.3 147.2 73% 68–74 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Illinois +2.3 149.1 63% 67–79 ✓
Campbell @ Stetson -1.5 125.4 45% 60–58 ✓
Maine @ Bradley +11.8 128.1 87% 39–71 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon State -3.3 136.7 40% 60–45 ✓
Furman @ South Carolina Upstate +0.7 149.2 51% 87–77 ✗
Idaho State @ Air Force +12.8 125.5 86% 48–59 ✓
Charleston @ Chattanooga +18.4 148.0 84% 68–66 ✗
Georgia State @ Rhode Island +4.5 145.8 71% 59–94 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +27.7 152.1 91% 57–89 ✓
NJIT @ St. John's +18.0 150.1 87% 68–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Western Michigan -8.4 138.9 17% 85–93 ✗
UCLA @ UNLV -6.6 143.4 28% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ UNC Greensboro +1.3 131.0 60% 51–54 ✓
Northeastern @ Harvard +3.3 134.9 62% 57–77 ✓
New Hampshire @ Holy Cross -6.7 140.2 25% 70–55 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Liberty +4.9 129.8 71% 61–73 ✓
Denver @ Utah Valley +14.2 141.5 86% 68–77 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Creighton +10.3 140.8 83% 65–70 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Pepperdine -3.4 138.3 31% 59–56 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.