What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–16 on winners spread MAE 8.5 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UC San Diego @ Southern Miss -13.0 139.6 16% 55–56 ✗
UAB @ New Mexico -7.6 158.0 20% 86–73 ✓
Richmond @ Maryland -5.1 142.9 30% 80–86 ✗
Arizona State @ Syracuse -1.8 144.4 47% 84–92 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +3.1 153.8 62% 74–69 ✗
USC @ Saint Joseph's -13.9 150.0 14% 70–55 ✓
San Francisco @ Towson -1.2 141.1 41% 71–61 ✓
Mississippi State @ Louisville -6.3 136.4 22% 58–72 ✗
Georgetown @ San Diego State +1.9 135.9 55% 56–73 ✓
Baylor @ Michigan State +0.1 132.8 49% 75–58 ✗
Miami @ North Texas +1.8 131.6 61% 69–63 ✗
McNeese @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.9 140.1 64% 71–59 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech +6.9 138.7 75% 59–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Incarnate Word +3.8 150.8 63% 79–76 ✗
Dayton @ Kansas +14.4 143.2 84% 74–73 ✗
VCU @ UConn +10.9 131.3 85% 63–70 ✓
Omaha @ Purdue +36.9 146.8 91% 40–97 ✓
Bryant @ Brown +7.4 145.9 68% 65–59 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Clemson +21.1 148.4 89% 59–91 ✓
Columbia @ Boston College +13.5 143.8 85% 60–73 ✓
VMI @ LSU New Orleans +2.9 145.1 64% 71–79 ✓
Samford @ North Carolina A&T -0.9 139.0 47% 77–75 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee +18.4 146.2 88% 69–80 ✓
Austin Peay @ Howard +6.0 153.1 68% 69–67 ✗
Portland @ Montana State -0.4 145.1 46% 66–69 ✗
UIC @ San Diego +3.7 139.1 66% 52–64 ✓
Longwood @ Old Dominion -3.3 127.1 45% 61–62 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Ole Miss +30.4 150.8 91% 58–73 ✓
Presbyterian @ Central Arkansas -9.8 135.1 16% 75–66 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oral Roberts -9.3 145.5 19% 78–77 ✓
Alabama @ Drake +0.1 152.0 52% 80–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Auburn +7.7 153.8 76% 68–89 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Purdue Fort Wayne -0.4 131.8 48% 66–74 ✗
Florida A&M @ UC Riverside +12.9 126.8 84% 49–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ DePaul +15.6 153.6 79% 68–77 ✓
Hawai'i @ South Alabama +3.0 142.1 64% 69–72 ✓
Iona @ Belmont +1.8 148.6 52% 65–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.