Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–17 on winners spread MAE 10.4 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware @ Temple +2.3 150.4 60% 74–75 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Florida Gulf Coast +8.6 141.7 75% 71–90 ✓
LSU @ Wake Forest -7.5 144.3 22% 75–61 ✓
Kansas City @ Morehead State -0.4 135.1 50% 62–70 ✗
Marshall @ Indiana +17.1 147.2 87% 79–90 ✓
Sacramento State @ Arizona +30.6 144.1 91% 59–105 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington State +22.8 156.9 87% 76–71 ✗
UC Irvine @ Santa Clara +9.8 139.3 72% 69–64 ✗
Idaho @ North Dakota State +13.5 138.8 88% 73–90 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Marquette +11.9 137.7 87% 66–80 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah State +22.2 144.3 91% 61–80 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Tech -6.3 149.9 22% 87–70 ✓
BYU @ Utah +9.4 137.2 73% 75–64 ✗
Winthrop @ Washington +4.9 153.9 70% 82–74 ✗
St. Thomas @ Seattle U +5.0 151.6 68% 64–81 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Loyola Marymount +8.4 143.8 79% 80–83 ✓
North Texas @ Drake +7.6 130.8 67% 57–54 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Seton Hall +25.5 139.3 91% 70–84 ✓
Troy @ Florida +16.4 139.4 86% 45–84 ✓
North Florida @ Florida International +9.2 130.0 78% 69–84 ✓
Kansas @ Iona -2.9 147.1 36% 96–83 ✓
Merrimack @ Boston University +13.3 127.7 84% 60–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Montana State +6.9 161.3 75% 68–75 ✓
Fordham @ Central Connecticut -6.6 139.2 27% 89–83 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +12.6 141.4 84% 85–81 ✗
Western Michigan @ SE Louisiana -0.1 146.9 57% 81–77 ✓
The Citadel @ South Carolina State -7.4 158.5 26% 91–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Milwaukee -1.3 133.6 45% 61–57 ✓
Evansville @ Eastern Illinois -1.0 131.4 33% 70–54 ✓
James Madison @ Florida Atlantic +2.8 151.0 51% 69–65 ✗
American University @ Duquesne +8.6 143.3 78% 79–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Fairfield +11.3 140.1 80% 75–70 ✗
Rider @ South Carolina +15.0 138.4 85% 58–65 ✓
Siena @ Bucknell +8.9 146.3 83% 56–65 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ DePaul +11.6 159.3 82% 63–101 ✓
Chicago State @ Bowling Green +3.8 145.3 68% 57–75 ✓
Southern @ Tennessee State +1.1 140.1 54% 82–80 ✗
UL Monroe @ SMU +13.2 154.0 88% 67–74 ✓
Portland @ Incarnate Word -6.8 135.8 22% 77–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Arkansas +14.4 150.8 84% 60–76 ✓
Dayton @ Belmont +6.7 146.3 73% 63–61 ✗
Kansas City @ Arkansas State -5.9 135.6 32% 55–66 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Princeton +16.5 144.0 87% 79–89 ✓
Dartmouth @ Bryant +2.8 142.2 57% 63–61 ✗
Wofford @ Georgia -0.7 142.9 48% 68–65 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State -7.7 150.3 23% 72–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Kennesaw State +10.2 149.1 78% 52–89 ✓
Brown @ Quinnipiac +4.0 142.0 56% 72–61 ✗
North Alabama @ Alabama State +8.3 143.8 74% 81–69 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Radford -0.1 137.3 50% 75–88 ✗
North Dakota @ Kansas State +9.7 144.3 76% 42–84 ✓
Villanova @ La Salle -15.6 147.2 14% 72–46 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ San Diego +17.3 132.4 87% 56–52 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Florida Gulf Coast +8.9 147.4 81% 78–85 ✓
Miami @ Alabama +8.8 153.4 79% 64–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.