Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–23 on winners spread MAE 9.5 79 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina State @ Queens University +22.5 161.5 98% 78–102 ✓
Missouri State @ Xavier +17.1 150.6 94% 57–75 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina A&T +11.0 131.0 84% 79–82 ✓
Texas @ UConn +15.9 149.9 93% 63–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +0.9 138.1 53% 75–76 ✓
East Texas A&M @ McNeese +18.5 141.8 95% 66–102 ✓
California Baptist @ Eastern Washington -2.3 156.6 42% 88–83 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State -9.6 145.0 19% 76–72 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arkansas -1.0 151.8 46% 86–93 ✗
Iona @ St. John's +23.6 165.9 98% 64–91 ✓
UAlbany @ Florida Atlantic +19.3 154.3 96% 79–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Florida State +6.3 158.7 72% 103–95 ✗
DePaul @ Wichita State +13.6 142.4 89% 61–58 ✗
Central Michigan @ Stony Brook +15.1 149.3 91% 55–78 ✓
UL Monroe @ Miami +37.4 155.1 100% 79–104 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Mason +16.2 143.6 93% 61–73 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Elon +17.6 167.7 95% 79–85 ✓
Toledo @ Robert Morris +2.6 156.1 59% 70–75 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +2.3 170.4 58% 85–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Delaware +7.4 154.5 75% 88–66 ✗
Marquette @ Purdue +23.5 155.4 98% 59–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina +21.6 149.1 98% 62–80 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ UNC Asheville +2.1 145.5 58% 80–59 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +10.2 144.6 82% 69–66 ✗
North Dakota State @ Drake +6.8 143.5 73% 99–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Georgia State -0.7 126.8 47% 73–77 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Utah Valley +9.7 161.5 81% 53–68 ✓
Jackson State @ Northwestern +29.8 146.2 100% 53–93 ✓
Boston University @ Dartmouth +5.1 160.4 68% 64–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ NJIT -0.8 153.6 47% 65–49 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -0.4 154.9 49% 80–76 ✓
Providence @ Butler +10.6 177.2 83% 110–113 ✓
Manhattan @ Fordham +10.2 145.3 82% 53–82 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Quinnipiac +17.5 159.1 94% 71–75 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Davidson +13.2 132.0 88% 47–80 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia +17.8 159.0 95% 65–84 ✓
Evansville @ Notre Dame +20.8 142.9 97% 58–82 ✓
Canisius @ Maine +11.0 119.0 84% 70–43 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ South Dakota +5.3 168.1 68% 85–97 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Georgetown +16.2 146.2 93% 68–76 ✓
George Washington @ Florida +7.2 163.5 75% 70–80 ✓
New Orleans @ Houston +23.1 141.9 98% 57–99 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Kentucky -7.3 167.7 25% 79–69 ✓
Tulsa @ New Mexico State -9.1 154.6 20% 83–70 ✓
Hampton @ Howard -5.2 143.1 32% 57–61 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ole Miss +5.0 147.4 68% 67–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Longwood +13.2 146.1 89% 81–76 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +12.4 119.3 87% 44–65 ✓
Arkansas State @ Rice -0.2 160.1 49% 76–77 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Valparaiso -2.8 134.6 40% 73–70 ✓
Kansas State @ Creighton +1.8 156.9 56% 83–76 ✗
Mercer @ Clemson +18.7 155.9 96% 63–70 ✓
Memphis @ Louisville +20.2 156.8 97% 73–99 ✓
Nebraska @ Illinois +10.0 154.2 82% 83–80 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +19.8 149.0 96% 84–87 ✓
UC Davis @ Oregon +2.2 146.4 58% 62–104 ✓
Wright State @ Marshall +3.3 148.7 62% 74–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Denver +5.0 180.9 68% 105–86 ✗
Murray State @ Akron +6.8 180.9 73% 115–100 ✗
UTSA @ Colorado +25.6 155.4 99% 64–88 ✓
Hofstra @ Syracuse +6.6 140.2 73% 70–69 ✗
Marist @ Bryant -3.4 117.9 38% 82–74 ✓
Niagara @ Morgan State +3.0 141.4 61% 73–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Binghamton -9.3 141.8 20% 84–67 ✓
La Salle @ Long Island University +8.2 144.6 77% 60–70 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Villanova +13.8 137.8 90% 61–79 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian +8.8 133.1 79% 74–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ Auburn +20.3 155.9 97% 78–92 ✓
Montana State @ Oregon State -2.1 143.2 42% 57–67 ✗
Northwestern State @ California +24.4 154.3 99% 70–79 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Ohio -8.4 155.2 22% 83–88 ✗
Illinois State @ Utah State +5.2 144.5 68% 78–83 ✓
Kansas @ NC State +3.8 154.0 63% 77–76 ✗
Northern Arizona @ San Diego +2.7 144.5 60% 69–78 ✓
Southern Utah @ Washington +27.6 150.8 99% 69–105 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Iowa +9.8 152.4 81% 63–75 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Richmond +6.8 160.7 73% 84–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +4.0 152.4 64% 81–73 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +31.9 159.7 100% 72–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.