Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -2100 MOST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -17.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -18.5 (-0.5) | 149.1 (-17.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -16.5 (+1.5) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -16.9 (+1.1) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -15.5 (+2.5) | 147.0 (-15.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#105) | -7.5 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#109) | -1.23 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#95) | -1.59 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#85) | 0.438 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.03 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 59.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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