Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -340 PV +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +12 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -5.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -6.0 (+6.0) | 158.8 (+23.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -4.5 (+7.5) | 155.8 (+26.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -5.0 (+7.0) | 156.2 (+25.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -4.8 (+7.2) | 157.0 (+25.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#277) | -7.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#280) | -1.48 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#260) | -1.94 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#293) | 0.462 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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