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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
East Carolina
|
+5.1 | 138.0 | 68% | 67–54 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
Virginia Tech
|
+22.5 | 157.8 | 98% | 74–96 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+8.2 | 136.4 | 77% | 58–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Iowa State
|
+15.8 | 153.3 | 92% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Missouri
|
+19.0 | 159.9 | 96% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Syracuse
|
+20.4 | 141.9 | 97% | 63–71 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
-7.5 | 147.6 | 25% | 80–69 | ✓ |
Army
@
UMBC
|
+10.8 | 149.2 | 84% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.