Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -198 APP +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +13 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -3.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.1 (-16.1) | 132.2 (-11.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.5 (-15.5) | 133.4 (-12.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -2.8 (-15.8) | 133.6 (-12.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -1.9 (-14.9) | 133.2 (-12.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#309) | -8.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#311) | -1.35 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#319) | -2.24 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#248) | 0.405 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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