Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | VT -3200 WCU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +22 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | VT -22.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -17.7 (+4.3) | 153.4 (+16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.8 (+5.2) | 150.1 (+19.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -19.2 (+2.8) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -19.3 (+2.7) | 150.5 (+19.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#66) | -8.2 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#39) | -0.62 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#48) | -0.83 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#15) | 0.469 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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