Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -18.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -22.4 (-14.4) | 152.6 (+9.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -17.9 (-9.9) | 151.4 (+10.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -17.6 (-9.6) | 152.2 (+9.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -19.4 (-11.4) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | MIZ 82 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#62) | -4.5 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#100) | -0.67 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#92) | -1.27 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#164) | 0.484 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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