Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -50000 ALST +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -22.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -20.3 (-3.3) | 158.6 (-11.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -20.0 (-3.0) | 160.0 (-13.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -21.5 (-4.5) | 159.5 (-12.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -23.6 (-6.6) | 159.0 (-12.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 77 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#39) | -5.4 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#52) | -0.97 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#40) | -1.52 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.451 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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