Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -375 ARMY +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -11.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.7 (-10.7) | 146.0 (-23.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.5 (-12.5) | 144.5 (-21.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -10.9 (-13.9) | 145.4 (-22.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -9.9 (-12.9) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#259) | -12.4 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#184) | -2.17 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#183) | -3.38 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#213) | 0.413 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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