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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–7 on winners spread MAE 10.8 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Minnesota @ Purdue +19.9 139.1 96% 57–85 ✓
New Haven @ NJIT +1.7 129.5 56% 64–70 ✓
Charleston @ South Florida +19.1 160.3 96% 75–81 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall +1.5 166.3 55% 61–77 ✓
New Mexico @ VCU +11.1 153.1 84% 81–78 ✗
Maine @ Boston University +9.8 135.9 81% 69–59 ✗
Bryant @ Iona +13.7 148.8 89% 63–69 ✓
Idaho @ Notre Dame +10.6 147.3 83% 65–80 ✓
Liberty @ NC State +12.1 165.9 86% 45–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Boston College +0.8 136.1 53% 76–74 ✗
Colgate @ St. Bonaventure +8.3 150.3 77% 77–85 ✓
Delaware @ George Washington +25.8 161.9 99% 70–58 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham +13.9 137.8 90% 54–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +34.6 134.5 100% 38–80 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Illinois +3.9 148.0 64% 54–83 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Eastern Illinois -0.9 153.2 47% 68–59 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa +28.3 164.3 99% 84–117 ✓
Weber State @ Kansas City -8.1 154.3 23% 64–60 ✓
Idaho State @ Utah Valley +11.1 142.4 84% 69–73 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Purdue Fort Wayne -0.1 146.7 50% 65–80 ✗
Southern @ Texas State +2.7 154.0 60% 83–86 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska +5.1 159.0 68% 60–90 ✓
Duquesne @ Boise State +17.8 152.2 95% 64–86 ✓
Lamar @ San Diego State +15.2 137.4 92% 71–89 ✓
Fresno State @ Cal State Northridge -3.2 152.7 39% 87–89 ✗
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis +0.8 176.6 53% 85–75 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.