Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -2400 LAM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -15.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -13.7 (+4.3) | 133.8 (+26.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.3 (+6.7) | 135.2 (+24.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -12.2 (+5.8) | 136.6 (+23.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -11.8 (+6.2) | 137.1 (+22.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#83) | -3.2 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#140) | -0.24 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#92) | -0.41 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#117) | 0.407 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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