Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -8000 UAPB +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +33 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -27.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (+36.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -29.2 (+3.8) | 151.9 (+49.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TLSA -22.0 (+11.0) | 152.5 (+48.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TLSA -23.7 (+9.3) | 152.7 (+48.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -28.3 (+4.7) | 153.4 (+47.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | TLSA 103 – 80 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#52) | -12.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#50) | -0.74 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#45) | -1.48 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#34) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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