Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -175 SOU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.2 (-1.2) | 143.1 (+25.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.7 (-0.7) | 143.1 (+25.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.3 (-0.3) | 143.2 (+25.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.3 (-0.3) | 143.3 (+25.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#288) | -6.2 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#276) | -0.89 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#263) | -1.67 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#311) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.