Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -470 UTM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +29 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -3.8 (+25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -3.8 (+25.2) | 144.8 (-7.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -3.3 (+25.7) | 140.6 (-3.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.6 (+26.4) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -3.2 (+25.8) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | 2.5 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#159) | 0.99 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#174) | 0.92 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#190) | 0.539 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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