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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Virginia
|
+31.7 | 134.1 | 100% | 60–84 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Kentucky
|
+35.1 | 142.0 | 100% | 67–103 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Howard
|
-5.0 | 146.8 | 33% | 69–73 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+20.5 | 147.5 | 97% | 65–87 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Ball State
|
-9.0 | 134.2 | 21% | 68–64 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
West Virginia
|
+24.6 | 125.8 | 99% | 58–90 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Stony Brook
|
-3.5 | 146.6 | 38% | 73–77 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Rhode Island
|
-0.7 | 140.6 | 47% | 66–64 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Rider
|
-1.5 | 138.9 | 44% | 51–38 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Ohio State
|
-2.6 | 158.3 | 41% | 88–80 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Providence
|
+17.7 | 156.7 | 95% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
DePaul
|
+17.5 | 151.6 | 94% | 49–92 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Indiana
|
+13.9 | 152.6 | 90% | 72–113 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Wyoming
|
+23.2 | 163.8 | 98% | 79–106 | ✓ |
USC
@
San Diego
|
-14.0 | 167.5 | 10% | 94–81 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Colorado State
|
+20.9 | 162.8 | 97% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Arizona State
|
+14.1 | 150.7 | 90% | 48–73 | ✓ |
Florida
@
UConn
|
+4.4 | 144.4 | 66% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
San José State
|
+7.2 | 140.5 | 74% | 83–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+14.0 | 148.1 | 90% | 67–97 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Yale
|
+20.9 | 153.7 | 97% | 82–93 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Princeton
|
+5.7 | 134.0 | 70% | 59–56 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
UNC Asheville
|
-2.1 | 155.3 | 42% | 90–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.