Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -3200 DART +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -21.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -21.6 (-0.6) | 147.2 (-16.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -17.3 (+3.7) | 151.8 (-20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -18.5 (+2.5) | 151.6 (-20.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -19.3 (+1.7) | 148.8 (-17.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#59) | -6.4 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#67) | -2.12 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#42) | -3.15 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#74) | 0.397 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 45.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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